solution

烟草税是最为有效,却是使用最少的控烟工具。大幅度的增加烟草税,会提高烟草制品的价格,降低它的可支付能力,从而能减少烟草消费和开始吸烟的人数。

When thinking about stopping an epidemic, tax is usually not the first thing that comes to mind. Yet perhaps the most impactful way to reduce tobacco use is to tax tobacco products. Some countries are already successfully using tax to reduce smoking rates, reaping significant and immediate health and revenue benefits. While there is no maximum tax level, some set ambitious goals, such as New Zealand’s goal to increase the cost of a cigarette pack to 30 New Zealand dollars (ca. 20 USD) through excise taxation. Unfortunately, most of the world, predominantly its poorer parts, still lags in implementing high tobacco taxes .

The mechanisms behind tobacco taxation are simple. A sufficiently large tax increase will raise tobacco product prices. By observing smokers’ behavior, researchers have determined that on average a 10% increase in cigarette prices makes the consumption of cigarettes fall by between 2% and 8%. Higher tobacco prices are especially effective in reducing tobacco use in more vulnerable populations, such as youth and lower-income people, because those groups are particularly sensitive to price increases. Frequent, significant tax increases are especially needed in countries where consumers’ purchasing powers are growing. When incomes rise faster than cigarette prices, smoking becomes more affordable, encouraging consumption. Excise tax increases are a proven and effective way to make cigarettes and other tobacco products less affordable.

Globally, we have yet to realize significant opportunities for improving health from tobacco taxation. For example, using only tobacco taxes, countries could realistically achieve the World Health Organization target of a 30% relative reduction in smoking prevalence by 2025. Unfortunately, many governments are still reluctant to increase taxes, because they often rely on tobacco industry reports that typically suggest that any additional tax increase will cause declines in tax revenue or a massive increase in cigarette smuggling. Independent studies have shown that these claims are usually greatly exaggerated; new tax increases bring in additional revenue for the governments, whereas illicit trade in tobacco products can be controlled while keeping prices high. When in force, the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products will provide powerful tools to combat cigarette smuggling globally.


差别税收待遇会导致替代产品的出现

哥伦比亚卷烟支付能力

由于消费者的购买行为受产品价格及其自身可支配收入的影响,所以经济学家使用这两个数值的比率来确定产品的支付能力。这一比率可以解释为购买产品的支出占收入的比重(相对收入价格)。购买卷烟的支出占收入比重越大,产品支付能力越低。

尽管从2007年到2017年,哥伦比亚的卷烟价格上涨,但价格却很难跟上通货膨胀的步伐。由于哥伦比亚的收入增长比卷烟价格的增长快,因此卷烟的支付能力增加。

卷烟价格

最畅销品牌的卷烟价格(每包20支,以经购买力平价调整过的美元价格表示)

In dotted countries, cigarette affordability has declined from 2008-2018.

增税并不会导致卷烟走私泛滥。

英国的卷烟价格与非法贸易市场

从2001到2016年,由于烟草税定期提高,英国经通膨调整后的卷烟实际价格上涨了63%,这使得英国的卷烟价格居世界前列。与此同时,提税导致卷烟消费量下降,非法市场销量也下降了70%以上。

烟草价格是行业营销策略的核心,而烟草制品的价格是由烟草行业制定的。卷烟是规格基本相同的产品,容易在全球以低成本制造。通过定价策略,烟草行业规划其销量,并决定哪些产品和品牌属于“高档”,哪些是“经济”品牌。

便宜的品牌会帮助行业拓宽其客户群,因为这些产品可支付能力较强,尤其是对青少年而言。此外,当税额增加导致所有卷烟的价格上升时,某些消费者会转向这些更便宜的品牌,而不是戒烟。

不同品牌卷烟之间的价格差距可以通过烟草税政策来缩小。统一的从量消费说对于减少卷烟价格的差异特别有效。

肯尼亚于2015年出台了消费税法案,它不仅提高了税率,还将税制结构从从价税(同时设置最低限价)改为统一的从量税。它使得卷烟的价格上升,缩小了价格差异。2014年,在该法案出台之前,价格最低的卷烟品牌比最热销的卷烟品牌便宜40%。2016年,在更改税制结构后,价格差异缩小为只有27%。

注:肯尼亚无法继续维持统一的消费税税率。2017年,肯尼亚又重新对过滤嘴和非过滤嘴卷烟设置两档税率,这一税制设计基于税收公平的原则。